Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Republican Party Puts Speedbumps, Roadblocks, Tollbooths and Detours Along Sarah Palin's Path To The Nomination

Walter Shapiro of Politics Daily attended Sarah Palin's recent address at the annual Ronald Reagan Dinner in Iowa, then wrote an interesting article about Palin's prospects for winning the Republican nomination should she decide to run. Shapiro wrote, in part:
... A little-noticed change in Republican Party rules for the 2012 presidential season may play a role in shaping Palin's ultimate decision [on whether to run].

Palin's most likely path to the nomination would depend on sweeping the Iowa caucuses (made-to-order for a high intensity candidate in a multi-candidate field), surviving a probable setback in New Hampshire (those pesky independent voters) and then roaring back to win the all-important South Carolina primary (the Kingmaker State whose likely next governor, Nikki Haley, was one of the first Mama Grizzlies). After that, Palin would have a serious shot at sweeping a series of major state (California, Texas, New York) winner-take-all primaries or winner-take-all by congressional district, even though she probably could never hit 50 percent in a contested race.

But that theory exploded when the Republican National Committee recently voted to switch to proportional representation (the system that was used by the Democrats during the protracted Obama-versus-Hillary Clinton battle) for all primaries held during the first two months of the 2012 season. What that means is that it will very difficult for a divisive candidate like Palin to sweep the table before the party establishment (buffeted though it may have been recently) can regroup. ...
Awarding delegates proportionately makes it much more difficult for Palin to get the nomination. The winner-take-all approach might have helped her to the nomination, like it helped her reach Alaska's governorship with less than fifty percent of the vote, with a plurality rather than a majority. Now, Palin will have to try to appeal to moderate Republican primary voters, which, if she does, is guaranteed to turn off her fans.

Shapiro came up with the three-state plan nearly a year ago, and since then that plan has become "common sense" among Palin's fans. It became so ingrained in their thinking that this Republican strategist still believes in it:

The Democratic strategist, Karen Finney, appears to be more realistic than her Republican counterpart. Finney doesn't think Palin is running for anything more than a payday.


Anonymous said...

Agree with Finney on this one. Sarah and the MSM are in it together, playing "will she or won't she" for monetary gain. Asshats.

Meanwhile, it seems highly doubtful, based on her crappy speech in Iowa, that Palin would win the Iowa primary, anyway.

Floyd M. Orr said...

I like your title for this post! As you probably know, I am one of those who has been sure for a couple of years now that SP would run. I read the original article you reference here last night, and I agree that this is a real impediment to her nomination. The article states that this will apply to that crucial group of primaries in approximately 25 states that hold primaries in January and February. I also think this is a much more reasonable way to handle electoral votes in the first place, so I am happy to see the RNC making this change, regardless of Palin.


Joie Vouet said...

Sarah may have realized that her hopes of hijacking the Republican Party have been dashed. She is now wholeheartedly embracing the Tea Party.

Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has a story (with SarahPac's lates video).


Thankyou, Floyd. I am still learning to write!

Anonymous said...

Then palin better start sounding more intelligent soon.
For the past 2 years she has had no policy suggestions.
If she is going to be a candidate she will not win on POTUS is wrong.
She will have to prove that she knows how to turn this country around.
She will not have McCain to haul the big guns and leave her with the fluff stuff.
She will also have to go on other shows besides hannity and beck.

Anonymous said...

She could never win. However, she will intentionally reek havoc whether she chooses to run or not. That is her nature.

Anonymous said...

Did ya see this?
RNC still paying for her legal bills.


grift baby grift.


Anonymous said...

Sarah Palin will run for President. Joe Milller will be her running mate so it's vital that he win his Alaskan campaign for US Senate. Sarah ALWAYS hires her unqualified friends.

Ya betcha, it'll be Teabagger Hell for America (at least for the parts that don't have "real Americans").