Saturday, August 20, 2011

How Sarah Palin Could Win By Losing -- Updated with VIDEO

This morning Karl Rove seemed to say on "Fox News Saturday" that Sarah Palin will run for the Republican presidential nomination.

The only things I see on Palin's calendar are an appearance at a Tea Party event in Iowa and an appearance with Glenn Beck.

Whatever Rove thinks, a big reason for her to run is to stay in the news. She could either skip the debates or participate in them. She could go to the debates to debate or to show the other participants her middle finger. She would get a lot of free publicity, either way. Either way, her fans would be happy; happy fans contribute. Publicity keeps the speaking business going. As time goes by, all of the candidates are going to try to distinguish themselves by sniping at President Obama. The press is more likely to cover the remarks of declared candidates.

But Palin would be running against Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann for the extremist vote. That could make Mitt Romney happy, but would it ensure that Romney would be nominated? Probably not.

The Republicans used to award each state's delegates on a winner-take-all basis, but next year some states will award delegates on a proportional basis, like Democrats do. A candidate could win 15% of a state's delegates by winning 15% of the primary vote, in a state that awards delegates proportionately. It may take longer for a front-runner and the eventual nominee to emerge under this new system. The Republican convention could open with no candidate with enough delegates to win the nomination on the first vote.

Even if Palin only gets 10 to 20 percent of the delegates, she may be able to exert some influence at the convention. There are various committees her delegates could participate in and/or gum-up with their recalcitrance and refusal to negotiate. Yes, they might even hijack a committee and hold that committee's work product hostage, like they recently held the economy hostage during the negotiations over deficit/debt reduction. If the convention deadlocks, because no candidate has enough delegates to win the nomination, her influence could be even greater as the other candidates could be forced to negotiate with her for her endorsement.

Republicans in some large states, like New York, New Jersey and California will be holding primaries that award delegates proportionately. "Twenty-four states are winner-take-all, 11 are proportional, and eight either hold caucuses or have their own election that is an alternative form of a primary or a caucus."

So, Sarah Palin should run, wreak havoc, and pay me for this excellent advice.

Here are a two links about the process: "About the Primary - Caucus - Convention System" and "Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2012."


conscious at last said...

Why do you want her to wreak havoc?

Joie Vouet said...

For the good of the party.

nancydrew said...

Joie--this post leaves me with a headache since I am math-challenged and will now have to try to run numbers as an incompetent. Maybe Nate Silver has already done that -- although I don't have the feeling he watches Sarah very closely. ;-)