How Sarah Palin Could Win By Losing -- Updated with VIDEO

This morning Karl Rove seemed to say on "Fox News Saturday" that Sarah Palin will run for the Republican presidential nomination.



The only things I see on Palin's calendar are an appearance at a Tea Party event in Iowa and an appearance with Glenn Beck.

Whatever Rove thinks, a big reason for her to run is to stay in the news. She could either skip the debates or participate in them. She could go to the debates to debate or to show the other participants her middle finger. She would get a lot of free publicity, either way. Either way, her fans would be happy; happy fans contribute. Publicity keeps the speaking business going. As time goes by, all of the candidates are going to try to distinguish themselves by sniping at President Obama. The press is more likely to cover the remarks of declared candidates.

But Palin would be running against Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann for the extremist vote. That could make Mitt Romney happy, but would it ensure that Romney would be nominated? Probably not.

The Republicans used to award each state's delegates on a winner-take-all basis, but next year some states will award delegates on a proportional basis, like Democrats do. A candidate could win 15% of a state's delegates by winning 15% of the primary vote, in a state that awards delegates proportionately. It may take longer for a front-runner and the eventual nominee to emerge under this new system. The Republican convention could open with no candidate with enough delegates to win the nomination on the first vote.

Even if Palin only gets 10 to 20 percent of the delegates, she may be able to exert some influence at the convention. There are various committees her delegates could participate in and/or gum-up with their recalcitrance and refusal to negotiate. Yes, they might even hijack a committee and hold that committee's work product hostage, like they recently held the economy hostage during the negotiations over deficit/debt reduction. If the convention deadlocks, because no candidate has enough delegates to win the nomination, her influence could be even greater as the other candidates could be forced to negotiate with her for her endorsement.

Republicans in some large states, like New York, New Jersey and California will be holding primaries that award delegates proportionately. "Twenty-four states are winner-take-all, 11 are proportional, and eight either hold caucuses or have their own election that is an alternative form of a primary or a caucus."

So, Sarah Palin should run, wreak havoc, and pay me for this excellent advice.

Here are a two links about the process: "About the Primary - Caucus - Convention System" and "Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2012."

Where's Sarah Palin's Bus? 12 Things to know about Rick Perry

Apparently, no one is following Sarah Palin's bus anymore. Since Iowa, Palin has only been mentioned in a story about her appearance at Ronald Reagan's birthplace. But Texas Governor Rick Perry is getting a lot of attention. Eileen Smith wrote -- before Perry announced his candidacy -- of several things people should know about Perry:

Perry's disdain for the media rivals that of Sarah Palin, as evidenced by his avoiding reporters, eschewing televised debates, and even refusing to meet with the state's editorial boards during the last gubernatorial election. Unfortunately for the governor, he's going to need the media if he wants to run on a national platform. And he's never seen anything like the Washington press corps.

As momentum builds behind Perry's potential run at the White House in 2012, the national press is sure to delve deeper into his record. As that process begins, here's a list of things Texans know about Rick Perry that the national political audience should know, too.

Smith's twelve thirteen things to know about Perry are:

Few Texans Would Vote for Him

He Supported Al Gore in '88

'Adios, MoFo'

Conspiracy Theory: He Backs Transnational Government

Sued Over HPV Vaccines

Coyotegate

Border Cameras, Sanctuary Cities

He's Gotten More Religious

He Pals Around with Palin

He Didn't Blame BP for the Spill

He's Not Popular with W

Friends With Ted Nugent

A Nader Connection

It is surprising that Perry is not popular with Bush supporters. It has been said that Sarah Palin is George Bush in a skirt; that Rick Perry is George Bush on steroids.

The most alarming thing about Perry is his proclivity to treat human problems as "acts of God." That is an avoidance of responsibility (blame it on God) and an abdication of the responsiblity to act (let's solve the problem). There is nothing wrong with praying about the country's problems, but all those problems were created by humans and must be solved by them.

Another troublesome thing is his secessionist mentality. The Fourteenth amendment clearly states, "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States." The fourteenth amendment precludes secession, because secession by any state would render its citizens non-citizens of the United States. [emphasis added]

Smith's complete story in The Atlantic is "12 Things Texans Know About Gov. Rick Perry That You Should, Too." The story's byline states, "Eileen Smith is the editor of the satirical political blog In the Pink Texas, and a guest columnist at the Texas Observer. She lives in Austin."

The Texas Observer is running a cartoon, "Office of The Prophet." Instead of The Lone Star State, perhaps Texas should be called The Loon Star State.

A Los Angeles Times article, "Away from straw poll, Sarah Palin weighs her options," mentions that Palin is scheduled to appear September 3rd at a tea party rally in Iowa. Meanwhile, the bus must be going in circles, unless it turns-up in Waterloo, Iowa, tonight, where both Perry and Bachmann will appear at a fundraising dinner. What excuse could Palin use for showing up in Waterloo tonight? The bus ran out of gas? Its wheels are coming off?

Update: There has been a bus sighting in Springfield, Illinois. And, Kathleen Parker of The Washington Post asks:

Despite her persistence as a hypothetical presidential contender in polls, could it be that Sarah Palin's moment is up? Has she (finally) exploited "McCain's Folly" to the greatest extent possible?

Texas Gov. Perry Steals Iowa Spotlight from Sarah Palin

There have been stories about Sarah Palin going to Iowa to steal the spotlight from actual candidates for the Republican nomination, but she, herself, has just been upstaged.

Sarah Palin said she was going to Iowa to eat junk food, but Texas governor Rick Perry is going to Iowa to campaign for the Republican nomination for President. It's probable that Perry is going to get more attention than Palin while they are both in Iowa, tomorrow.

How is Perry unlike Palin? He has completed two terms as Texas' governor, and, in his third term, he is now the longest serving governor of Texas. How many terms did Sarah Palin complete as Alaska's governor? In some other respects, they have much in common, so don't be surprised to see Palin endorse Perry.

An Austin, TX website has a story about Perry's announcement: "It's official, if familiar: Perry's in."

He (or she) who hesitates is lost.

Nobel Prize Winning Economist says We Must Defeat and Marginalize Extremists

Paul Krugman of the N.Y. Times doesn't take the S&P downgrade seriously, (indeed, in today's secondary market, the 10-year note's rate is decreasing), but does say that America has big problems:

... These problems have very little to do with short-term or even medium-term budget arithmetic. The U.S. government is having no trouble borrowing to cover its current deficit. It’s true that we’re building up debt, on which we’ll eventually have to pay interest. But if you actually do the math, instead of intoning big numbers in your best Dr. Evil voice, you discover that even very large deficits over the next few years will have remarkably little impact on U.S. fiscal sustainability.

No, what makes America look unreliable isn’t budget math, it’s politics. And please, let’s not have the usual declarations that both sides are at fault. Our problems are almost entirely one-sided — specifically, they’re caused by the rise of an extremist right that is prepared to create repeated crises rather than give an inch on its demands. [emphasis added]

The truth is that as far as the straight economics goes, America’s long-run fiscal problems shouldn’t be all that hard to fix. It’s true that an aging population and rising health care costs will, under current policies, push spending up faster than tax receipts. But the United States has far higher health costs than any other advanced country, and very low taxes by international standards. If we could move even part way toward international norms on both these fronts, our budget problems would be solved.

So why can’t we do that? Because we have a powerful political movement in this country that screamed “death panels” in the face of modest efforts to use Medicare funds more effectively, and preferred to risk financial catastrophe rather than agree to even a penny in additional revenues. [emphasis added]

The real question facing America, even in purely fiscal terms, isn’t whether we’ll trim a trillion here or a trillion there from deficits. It is whether the extremists now blocking any kind of responsible policy can be defeated and marginalized.

I shouldn't have to remind anyone of the name of the person who screamed 'death panels.'

Krugman's entire article is "Credibility, Chutzpah And Debt," which, by the way, contains the best definition of chutzpah I've ever read.

Tea Party Terrorists Hijacked the Economy -- Assume the Crash Position

Today, David Axelrod, former White House advisor, called Standard & Poor's downgrade of long-term U.S. debt "essentially a Tea Party downgrade." On CBS' "Face the Nation," Axelrod said that the Tea Party was responsible for the failure to negotiate a $4 trillion dollar deal that may have satisfied S&P's credit analysts:

"We can debate the strength of the analysis that they [S&P] did, the history of S&P and so on," Axelrod told CBS' Bob Schieffer, of Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency that downgraded the U.S. market from AAA to AA+ on Friday. "They made an egregious analytical error here but theirs was largely a political analysis... They want to see the kind of solution that the president has been fighting for... that will be balanced, that will include revenues, that will deal with some of our long-term issues."

"For months, the president was saying, let's get together, let's compromise," Axelrod continued. "We thought we had such an arrangement with the Speaker of the House... then he went back to his caucus; he had to yield to the most strident voices in his party. They played brinksmanship with the full faith and credit of the United States. This was the result in that."

"The fact of the matter is that this is essentially a Tea Party downgrade," he declared. "That clearly is on the backs of those who were willing to see the country default."

The death of the $4 trillion dollar deal is described in a N.Y. Times article, "Boehner Scales Back Deficit Talks, Citing Tax Increases." That article suggests that Speaker Boehner may have abandoned the $4 trillion negotiations on account of the intransigence of Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House majority leader, who is rumored to be short U.S. Treasuries, and, if he is, stands to profit from the downgrade as interest rates on U.S. bonds and notes go up.

Parties to the $4 trillion dollar negotiations knew that $4 trillion might have satisfied the rating agency. See Reuters' "S&P: Deficit cuts of $4 trillion a good start."

To understand why Republicans are afraid to increase revenues, see our post, "Never say never: How Republicans put themselves into a box," which has some information about Americans for Tax Reform and its leader, Grover Norquist. It was Norquist who once said, "I don't want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub." Most Republicans have put Norquist's interests ahead of the nation's interests by signing his pledge on taxes.

Clive Crook, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a financial journalist, has written "Some Thoughts on the S&P Downgrade." Among other things, he writes about the absolute necessity of never negotiating with terrorists like those members of congress who have taken the economy hostage.

In a few hours we'll begin to see markets' view of the downgrade. Markets in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and Korea open in a few hours, as do U.S. futures markets. Earlier today, the Tel Aviv market fell more than 6%.

Update: At 5:05 PM (Pacific), U.S. futures are down about 2%. Bloomberg's quotes on worldwide markets are here. There is a link to a story about Eric Cantor's trading in the comments.

Bone-headed luddites like Sarah Palin are wrecking the economy

From The N.Y. Times:

WASHINGTON – Standard & Poor’s removed the United States government from its list of risk-free borrowers on Friday night, citing concern about the rising burden of federal debt.

The rating on the country’s long-term debt was lowered one notch, from AAA to AA+, with a negative outlook.

The ratings agency had threatened the downgrade if the government did not act to reduce the federal debt by at least $4 trillion over the next decade. Earlier this week, Congress instead passed a plan to reduce the debt by at least $2.1 trillion. ...


Interestingly, there was a $4 trillion plan, but Speaker Boehner walked out of negotiations with President Obama, because that plan included revenue increases. It's uncertain whether that plan would have assuaged Standard & Poor's concerns, but it was a lot closer to their numbers.

There are two other major credit rating agencies: Moody's reaffirmed its AAA rating this week, and Fitch is reviewing its rating. It is unclear whether S&P's downgrade will make borrowing more costly. The other agencies may now follow S&P's lead.

Treasury auctions are scheduled for next week: An auction for 13-week and 26-week bills is scheduled for the 8th, so we may get a clue on Monday, but Monday's auctions are for short-term debt. 10-year notes and 30-year bonds are scheduled on the 10th and 11th, respectively. The auctions to watch are the 10-year and 30-year auctions.

A comparison of the Tea Party with terrorists may be in order: They didn't just hijack the plane, they're shooting the passengers. The credit downgrade will affect all of us.


Update: Reuters has a more detailed story, "United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P."

Update: Salon has "S&P to the U.S: Your credit is no good: Why the Tea Party-friendly Republicans of the U.S. House own this epic humiliation."

Update: The Huffington Post has, "S&P Downgrade: Tea Party Wins Battle, Loses War."

Update: The Times of India has "Shock waves in US after S&P downgrades its credit rating."

Roseanne Barr grabs Mama Grisly's Brass Ring -- To the White House, Roseannearchists!

From Slate's "Roseanne Barr Says She's Running for President:"

Last night, she [Roseanne Barr] proved that she wants a big stage for her political rantings, and she aimed a direct shot at Sarah Palin: She went on the Tonight Show and announced that she was running for president. In fact, Barr says that she said yes to a reality show because of Sarah Palin's reality show, and that she's running for President because Palin can, too. "I wanted to edge her out because I feel like she’s stealing my act anyway," Roseanne said, repeating something she told USA Today back in January.



A promise of NO TAXES!!! How will Sarah Palin and her Tea Partiers top that?