Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Palin fading in comparisons with Bachmann

Whatever people think about Michele Bachmann, she is being compared with Sarah Palin, and Palin is suffering in the comparison. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has mentioned several ways in which Bachmann excels Palin:
... After the 2008 election, Palin was the hottest commodity in Republican politics. She briefly sought to expand her decidedly narrow inner circle — hiring on the likes of GOP fundraiser Becki Donatelli — but those relationships quickly frayed, leaving Palin on a bit of a strategic island. (Palin’s closest political adviser, according to everyone familiar with her, is her husband Todd.) ...

... Palin has never squared off with other top Republicans in a debate format. Bachmann has — and she shined in the New Hampshire debate earlier this month. The ability to stand on a stage and look like you belong matters in a presidential race. Palin seems largely content to communicate with her supporters — and wade into political and policy fights — via Facebook and Twitter, two decidedly one-way conversations. ...

... Every candidate needs a state early in the nominating process where she (or he) can score a win. That’s Iowa for Bachmann. Not only is she already in a statistical dead heat with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in a new Des Moines Register poll but she was also born in the state — a fact she mentioned no fewer than 400 times in her announcement speech on Monday. (Ok, it was slightly less than 400 but not by much.) ...

... The confounding thing for many political strategists who have watched Palin over the past few years is her seeming refusal to reach beyond her core supporters. The result is that people who love Palin really love her but that is not a large enough group to win her a single state much less the GOP nomination. ...

... The simple fact is that every Republican knows Palin and a significant chunk of them don’t like her. In a March Washington Post/ABC News poll, just five percent of respondents said they had no opinion of Palin. Of those who did have an opinion, 58 percent felt favorably while 37 percent felt unfavorably. ...
I think that both Palin and Bachmann are rhetorical bomb throwers, but Bachmann may be able to calibrate her speech and sound somewhat presidential when she needs to. Another thing that could be happening with the Palin/Bachmann comparison is that it may make Bachmann appear to be a rational, organized person in comparison with Palin.

Palin's lack of organization -- Isn't she able to trust anyone other than Todd Palin? -- will doom her candidacy, should she decide to run. Facebook and Twitter, at best, can only augment a campaign that stresses on-the-ground meetings with voters and party officials. Palin may not be confident of her ability to mix it up with other Republicans, some of whom actually have an interest in government and want to discuss policy.

Some have said that Palin could gather momentum for the nomination by winning in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Bachmann has been campaigning in Iowa and is already campaigning in South Carolina. Where's Sarah? Selling books in Minnesota.

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