Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Why Sarah Palin won't be President - Reason #1

John Ellis, a cousin of George Bush, was refreshingly honest about Sarah Palin's electability. In a story, "INSIDE THE PALIN BUBBLE: Here's Why The 2012 Republican Front-Runner Just Made Such A Fool Of Herself," about Palin's "blood libel" video, Bush wrote (with my emphasis):

One suspects that the principal reason for Mrs. Palin's disastrous performance is that the people who seal her bubble are inexperienced and insular; ignorant of what national politics requires and rather too proud of that ignorance. They gave her very bad advice. That she took it reflects badly on her. It says what George Will and many others have been saying privately and publicly since she was tapped by Senator John McCain to be his running mate: she doesn't have what it takes.

This is not to say that Mrs. Palin is no longer a force in GOP politics or a player in the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination campaign. She has a strong base. In many ways, she remains the candidate of the Republican base, a formidable starting point for anyone who seeks to be the GOP standard-bearer.

But what was made clear in the last 48 hours is that Mrs. Palin will not be elected President of the United States in 2012. Out of nowhere, an atrocity focused attention on two people. The incumbent passed the test. The pretender failed, miserably.

Ellis is, of course, contrasting President Obama's eulogy of the Tucson shooting victims with Sarah Palin's response to the tragedy.

Whether Palin continues to be the preferred candidate of the Republican base, as Bush wrote, remains to be seen; Michele Bachmann is quite capable of filling the void left by Palin's failure. But whatever happens, it must be remembered that while the base is a significant part of the Republican party, it is a small part of the American electorate.

Bush also offered some insight into the bubble that presidents and wannabe presidents live in. The very existence of that bubble requires excellent staffing; something else Palin has failed at.

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