Walter Shapiro of Politics Daily attended Sarah Palin's recent address at the annual Ronald Reagan Dinner in Iowa, then wrote an interesting article about Palin's prospects for winning the Republican nomination should she decide to run. Shapiro wrote, in part:
... A little-noticed change in Republican Party rules for the 2012 presidential season may play a role in shaping Palin's ultimate decision [on whether to run].
Palin's most likely path to the nomination would depend on sweeping the Iowa caucuses (made-to-order for a high intensity candidate in a multi-candidate field), surviving a probable setback in New Hampshire (those pesky independent voters) and then roaring back to win the all-important South Carolina primary (the Kingmaker State whose likely next governor, Nikki Haley, was one of the first Mama Grizzlies). After that, Palin would have a serious shot at sweeping a series of major state (California, Texas, New York) winner-take-all primaries or winner-take-all by congressional district, even though she probably could never hit 50 percent in a contested race.
But that theory exploded when the Republican National Committee recently voted to switch to proportional representation (the system that was used by the Democrats during the protracted Obama-versus-Hillary Clinton battle) for all primaries held during the first two months of the 2012 season. What that means is that it will very difficult for a divisive candidate like Palin to sweep the table before the party establishment (buffeted though it may have been recently) can regroup. ...
Awarding delegates proportionately makes it much more difficult for Palin to get the nomination. The winner-take-all approach might have helped her to the nomination, like it helped her reach Alaska's governorship with less than fifty percent of the vote, with a plurality rather than a majority. Now, Palin will have to try to appeal to moderate Republican primary voters, which, if she does, is guaranteed to turn off her fans.
Shapiro came up with the three-state plan nearly a year ago, and since then that plan has become "common sense" among Palin's fans. It became so ingrained in their thinking that this Republican strategist still believes in it:
The Democratic strategist, Karen Finney, appears to be more realistic than her Republican counterpart. Finney doesn't think Palin is running for anything more than a payday.
Shapiro came up with the three-state plan nearly a year ago, and since then that plan has become "common sense" among Palin's fans. It became so ingrained in their thinking that this Republican strategist still believes in it:
The Democratic strategist, Karen Finney, appears to be more realistic than her Republican counterpart. Finney doesn't think Palin is running for anything more than a payday.
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