Palin tries to downplay meeting with Fox News bosses

In Peter Hamby's story for CNN, "Palin: Timing of New Hampshire visit 'coincidental'," Palin's meeting with her "bosses" at Fox News is mentioned:

Palin also addressed her lengthy meeting at Fox News on Thursday and speculation that she might be jeopardizing her lucrative television contract by ramping up her political activity.

Palin said she met with Fox News president Roger Ailes. She told reporters that she did not offer to resign.

"I did get to speak to Roger Ailes, and we always have great conversations," Palin said.

Following yesterday's meeting, a network executive said of Palin: "Right now there is no change in her status with Fox News."

She said not to read too much into the meeting.

"Any time we get to New York I like to hop in and say hi to the folks there who work so extremely hard and get to see some of the hosts and some of the reporters," Palin said before hopping into an SUV.

Remember when this campaign-tour/publicity-stunt/road-trip was announced? Palin said that she would post a schedule of her stops, then none appeared. Yesterday there was video with her in the backseat of a red SUV with Piper in the middle and Palin's mother on the other side, and Palin mentioned that there wouldn't be an exploratory committee. I think -- am speculating -- that Palin has been told that a tour with scheduled stops or the formation of an exploratory committee would result in the suspension of her contract with Fox. There may be other reasons, but Fox News could presume that she's running based on this tour, alone. She could have done a low-key tour of the same places without so much fanfare. She'll obey her bosses, if she wants to keep her $1 Million per year job at Fox.

About upstaging Romney's announcement, Hamby mentioned, "News leaked late yesterday that Palin is organizing a clambake for Thursday evening along the New Hampshire seacoast, just minutes from the Stratham farm where Romney plans to officially announce his second presidential bid." Who was responsible for that "leak?"

Update: Media Matters' "The Palin Bus Tour And Fox News' Ethical Morass" brings-up these three ethical concerns about Palin's tour: 1) Palin keeps hinting that she's running; 2) Fox News personalities are promoting Palin's brand and potential candidacy; 3) Is Fox News applying the Santorum/Gingrich standard to Palin?

Palin's fund-raising lags

Mitt Romney recently raised a little more than $10 Million in one day. It's unlikely that Sarah Palin's PAC has raised that much the entire time it has been in existence (almost two years). That doesn't deter those speculating that Palin may run, however, and a recent Washington Post story about a fund-raising letter sent by Palin's PAC to 400,000 people may fuel rumors that she'll run. I'm here to throw some cold water on that notion.

Direct mail solicitations typically get a 1% response rate, so we might expect 4000 people to respond to the PAC's letter. Even if 4000 people send an average of $100, the PAC will only raise $400,000; at an average of $1000 -- unlikely -- the PAC would raise $4,000,000. $400,000 may not seem a small amount to Joe and Jane Average, but it is in presidential politics where fund-raising ability on a large scale really matters: more than $1 Billion was spent during the 2008 campaign. One candidate spent about 3/4 of a billion dollars.

A Los Angeles Times story about Romney's fund-raising prowess notes -- while writing about last quarter's reports -- that Ron Paul raised about $3 Million with two PACs and adds, "Money raised through PACs can’t be used for a presidential bid." [emphasis added]

Can money raised by Palin's PAC be used to fund a presidential bid? A run by Palin?

Palin 2012 Hits Granite Wall

Jonathan Capehart of The Washington Post has some good news:

One too many political tea-leaf readers say that Sarah Palin, with her rock-star personality, loyal following and outsized influence on the Republican Party, could jump into the 2012 presidential race at the last minute and run off with the GOP nomination for president. This is in defiance of consistent and plain evidence that Palin is going nowhere fast. ...

Now a new poll from the University of New Hampshire ...

Now, here's where the news is really bad for Palin. ...

Lots can change between now and when the New Hampshire primary actually happens early next year. ...

But this much is clear: At the rate she's going, Palin will get nowhere near the Oval Office, let alone the Republican nomination. She has had two years to show the American people that she is not only worthy of the office but also worthy to be considered for the nomination. Her actions during this time have showed us time and again that she is more interested in playing a leader on television than actually being one.

Capehart's link to the "new poll" is a bad link, so here is a link to the poll results at The LA Times.

And there is more good news. As I wrote here, the addition of a chief-of-staff at SarahPAC is an indication of management failure, not a presidential bid. New York magazine has the news of two new departures from the PAC. One step forward, two steps backward. Is anyone surprised?

Salon, too, has an article, today, about Palin's fading prospects, here.

Palin failin' in Arizona

From Politico:

Even in Republican Arizona, Barack Obama has a healthy lead over Sarah Palin.

With the state swinging away from Democrats, having Palin on the ballot come general election time next year is Obama's best hope of winning the Grand Canyon State, according to a new poll. Democrats have taken Arizona in only one presidential race since 1952.

The survey by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found Obama topping Palin 49 percent to 41 percent in the state. That's significantly better than he fares against other candidates — Obama trails Mitt Romney by 6 points, Mike Huckabee by 4 points, and is locked in a tie with Newt Gingrich. ...

The article goes on, briefly, to attribute Palin's poor numbers to a preference for Obama: 51% disapprove of Obama's performance and 57% view Palin unfavorably.

Good News Roundup - Monday, December 27, 2010

Have you recovered from Christmas? I was in a Target store, yesterday, and it was packed with shoppers. They didn't seem to mind that Sarah Palin's new book wasn't on the shelves. That particular Target has an in-store fast-food restaurant. You can buy popcorn, sit on a stool at the front of the store and watch the cars and people go by through a big window. What a movie!


Some people can't quit obsessing over 2012. The Associated Press' Charles Babington has a reality check for Republicans:

WASHINGTON – When the news is written in D.C., it carries more weight, if you didn't already know. – This month's early, under-the-radar campaigning by potential Republican challengers to President Barack Obama is a reminder of something too easily forgotten: Running for president is harder than it looks, and Obama ultimately will stand against a flesh-and-blood nominee certain to make mistakes along the way.

Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and other possible GOP candidates stumbled over health care, taxes and other issues in December, even as Obama coped with the harsh political reality stemming from his party's "shellacking" in last month's elections.

No serious contender has officially launched a 2012 campaign. But with the Iowa caucuses less than 13 months away, at least a dozen Republicans are jockeying for position, speaking to groups throughout the country, writing op-ed columns and taking potshots at one another.

As all politicians – except Sarah Palin – learn, the more deeply they delve into contested issues, the likelier they are to stumble. ...

... Other potential GOP challengers, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, kept fairly low profiles this month. But it's clear the 2012 race is under way, even if unofficially.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs was asked about Palin's and Romney's criticism of the New START treaty with Russia and the compromise bill on tax cuts, both supported by Obama.

Americans want Washington politicians to solve big problems by finding common ground, he responded. ...

President Obama is unpopular?

For the third straight year, President Barack Obama ranks as the man most admired by people living in the U.S., according to an annual USA Today-Gallup poll.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is the most-admired woman for the ninth year in a row, edging out former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and TV host Oprah Winfrey, as she did last year. ...

Speaking of movies, I saw two yesterday. Tell No One is about a conspiracy that seems to hold water, that is, it's plausible. A man believes his wife was murdered. Eight years later the case is reopened and he's suspected of killing his wife (and others). I won't spoil it for you, but if you watch the Blu-ray, you should know there may be a "setup" option to get English dialog rather than subtitles. It is a French movie. On the other hand, Con Air was completely implausible, even though a lot of stuff got blown up and they crashed the plane spectacularly on the Vegas strip (after they had crashed it earlier, in the desert): The prisoners were able to carry out their plan to hijack the plane, in large part, because the authorities were forbidden from carrying guns aboard the plane (full of criminals). Imagine that! Yet you can see Air Marshals aboard commercial flights carrying guns all the time.