Iowa's 'Des Moines Register' has bad news for Sarah Palin ... and an explanation of how she's failing Iowa voters. Updated! With Comic Relief

A respected poll out of Iowa has more bad news for Sarah Palin this morning:

The Des Moines Register has -- Does Sarah Palin know that Des Moines is in Iowa? -- has "Iowa Poll: Palin's favorability rating slips."

The Boston Herald has, via AP, via The Des Moines Register -- looks like Des Moines' Register is on the case -- "Sarah Palin’s favorability rating drops in Iowa."

Politico's Ben Smith wrote, citing Des Moines' Register, "Palin fades in Iowa poll."

The Atlantic has -- What? Another cite for the Des Moines paper? -- "Poll: Palin's Numbers Dip in Iowa."

The Register's poll shows that Palin's favorability -- favorability is not the same as support for a candidacy -- rating has fallen to 65 percent compared with 71 percent in November of 2009. That drop, according to the Register's Poll Director, raises doubts about a Palin candidacy in Iowa:

... While a solid majority of [likely Republican voters] still views Palin positively, the intensity has waned as Palin has become a regular national media presence but done little to cultivate a support base in Iowa.

The shift is not dramatic, but it raises questions about whether Palin would have staying power in Iowa as she moves closer to a decision on a White House run, pollsters say.

"One might ask the question: Is she wearing well? And the numbers are not moving in a favorable direction on that," Iowa Poll director J. Ann Selzer said. ...

... [Since November of 2009], Palin has produced two best-selling books, become a regular contributor to Fox News Channel and become the subject of a television program on TLC.

She has also visited Iowa four times, including three times to promote her books and once to headline a state Republican Party fundraiser. Each appearance has drawn Iowa and national news coverage.

The new poll shows fewer likely voters who are Republicans view Palin very favorably, 18 percent, than the 27 percent who did so in the Register's November 2009 poll.

"The change in intensity is statistically significant," said Adam Geller, a Republican pollster and campaign consultant to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's 2009 campaign. "If you're Sarah Palin, you want those lines on the chart going up as the presidential contest gets closer, not going down." ...

... Favorability is not the same as support for Palin's candidacy, should she decide to run. ...

... Palin has done very little to cultivate political good will in a state where face-to-face meetings with influential activists, officials and organizers are common. Palin held no private political meetings during any of her four visits. She met briefly with about 50 influential Republican officials and donors during a reception before the fundraiser she headlined in September, but did not discuss mounting an Iowa campaign.

Some Iowa Republicans have said privately they do not expect Palin to run, considering her low profile in the state.

A reason for the dimmed enthusiasm for Palin could be her national exposure combined with her lack of Iowa activity, Geller said.

"She hasn't been active in the state. And Iowans have that expectation and a feeling of responsibility to see these people up close," Geller said. "But it might also be a little Sarah Palin fatigue. They are familiar with her and yet they are not necessarily embracing her. Sixty-five percent is not a very high favorable rating." ...

... Meanwhile, the percentage of likely Republican voters who view Palin unfavorably has grown to 30 percent in the new poll, up from 23 percent in the 2009 survey. ...

There is more at the Register's article, including quotes from Iowa Republicans -- there is at least one die-hard Palin supporter among them. I'll certainly be checking the Register -- Don't we need to adopt a standard for setting off the names of newspapers? periodicals? TV shows? -- checking for news of the Iowa caucuses.

Comic Relief: Wonkette has found a secret Twitter account that's said to be Sarah Palin's, used by her so that she can "follow" herself. At Wonkette's story, there are also links to the story of Sarah's secret Facebook account -- discovered by Wonkette, earlier -- an account she used to praise herself.

Update: Yay! The Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart has weighed in with his "Iowa Republicans cool to Sarah Palin:"

First, Sarah Palin's presidential flirtations hit a granite wall in New Hampshire -- home of the first-in-the-nation primary. Now comes a poll that shows likely Republican voters in Iowa -- home of the first-in-the-nation caucus -- are cooling to the half-term governor's charms. ...

... The Iowa poll is statistical proof of what Dan Balz reported two weeks ago in a report on Iowa Republican activists. Folks really like Palin. They just don't think she's ready to be president. Here's what Iowa physician Christi Taylor told Balz.

As a woman, and from one strong woman to another, I want to like her and want to support her desperately. And yet, you just can't quite do it. ...

At the end of Capehart's post, there is a chart of Palin's favorable/unfavorable rating since September of 2009. It doesn't look good for our lady-in-waiting. I admire Jonathan Capehart, because he has held a consistent view of Sarah Palin's presidential prospects for some time -- he isn't affected by Palin mania -- and I think he's right: "Sarah Palin is everywhere -- and going nowhere."

Sarah Palin Is on the Media Track, Not the Government Track

Here, we see Sarah Palin waving goodbye to the Republican nomination for President. It should come as a surprise to no one that she is happy to do so. Why? Because Sarah Palin isn't interested in government.

Last night, Judy Woodruff talked with Mark Shields, a syndicated columnist, and David Brooks, a New York Times columnist, on PBS' "News Hour" program. The conversation turned to Sarah Palin, and here is PBS' transcript of that portion of their discussion:

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, while we are talking about one man, one woman, David, Sarah Palin, she has -- not only has a new reality show out. She has a new book out. She is going to Iowa, I guess this weekend, and then again next week, important state for the presidential election.

What are we to make of where she is in the political firmament in the middle of all this?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, let's not forget "Dancing With the Stars" and Bristol's strong run there.

JUDY WOODRUFF: For sure.

DAVID BROOKS: Very impressive, I guess.

You know, the question with Palin has always been, is she on the government track or is she on the media track? Where is her career going? And, in the last six months, she's headed a little more toward the governing track, suggested a little more that she wants to run for president.

I still fundamentally think she's on the media track, wants to be a major media/political activist player, but will not run and will certainly not get the nomination. I base that on the fact that, to run for office, you have actually got to care about government, and those people don't quit the governorship in the middle of your first term.

Second, she couldn't even beat a write-in candidate in her own home state. She couldn't beat Lisa Murkowski. That doesn't suggest that she has tremendous political legs, even in her home -- own home state.

And, then, when you look at her statements, the tweets, all the stuff that comes out of camp Palin, it has to do with the media or her slashing back at the media for this or that insult, not so much about government. So, I still think she is mostly a media player.

JUDY WOODRUFF: More of a media track than a political track?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, she certainly is a dominant figure, I mean, make no mistake about it. I mean, you mentioned the media reality show, but she is a bestselling author. She is a dominant -- she dominates the debate.

I think it's fair to say, in the campaign of 2010, she was a major, major force in selecting and backing candidates. Yes, she -- the embarrassment in her home state, but, I mean, she really is the dominant female politician in the country and perhaps in the country's recent history, I mean, as a serious political -- presidential candidate.

She is liked by Republicans. The problem that she faces is that, when asked just before the election in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, do you think Sarah Palin, irrespective of how you feel toward her, is qualified to be president, only 27 percent of voters said yes, and 67 percent said no. And, most importantly of all, among independents, the swing group which they determined the last two elections, 23 percent thought she was qualified; 70 percent didn't.

That is what she has got to address, is that seriousness of purpose and sort of a mastery of the issues.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And, David, when -- when she told Barbara Walters, I guess this week, that she thought she could beat President Obama two years from now, he was asked about that. And he said: I don't pay much attention to her.

He was pretty low-key, but he said he respects her political skills. Does it matter how much -- how he handles her right now?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, he -- they, of course, would love it if she got the Republican nomination.

I assume Republican primary voters can read the polls that Mark referenced. And, even if she did run, I still think, even among Republican primary voters, they would say, we like her, but we don't think she can win, and so we are not going to vote for her.

But I think Obama, the best thing for him is to have her trundle along there and maybe, if not win the nomination, control the Republican nomination, because, as Mark says, and as we saw in Delaware and Nevada and various other states, the sort of candidates she sponsors is not the kind that win over independents.

The consensus seems to be that Palin is on the media track, not the government track. David Brooks, a conservative, cites Palin's resignation of the governorship as evidence that she is not interested in government, and, I think, Palin's decision to appear in tabloids and on gossip shows confirms Brooks' view.

Video of the discussion, which touched on other subjects and lasted for more than twelve minutes, can be seen here.

For an article about what serious candidates have done in Iowa during previous campaigns, The Des Moines Register has an interesting article: "Political advisers: Sarah Palin's 'star power' alone isn't enough."

The bestseller Game Change described what candidates went through in Iowa, in 2008: it's a lot of work and requires a lot of organization; two things Sarah Palin isn't famous for. You can read from Game Change, here, at Amazon.