Iowa's 'Des Moines Register' has bad news for Sarah Palin ... and an explanation of how she's failing Iowa voters. Updated! With Comic Relief

A respected poll out of Iowa has more bad news for Sarah Palin this morning:

The Des Moines Register has -- Does Sarah Palin know that Des Moines is in Iowa? -- has "Iowa Poll: Palin's favorability rating slips."

The Boston Herald has, via AP, via The Des Moines Register -- looks like Des Moines' Register is on the case -- "Sarah Palin’s favorability rating drops in Iowa."

Politico's Ben Smith wrote, citing Des Moines' Register, "Palin fades in Iowa poll."

The Atlantic has -- What? Another cite for the Des Moines paper? -- "Poll: Palin's Numbers Dip in Iowa."

The Register's poll shows that Palin's favorability -- favorability is not the same as support for a candidacy -- rating has fallen to 65 percent compared with 71 percent in November of 2009. That drop, according to the Register's Poll Director, raises doubts about a Palin candidacy in Iowa:

... While a solid majority of [likely Republican voters] still views Palin positively, the intensity has waned as Palin has become a regular national media presence but done little to cultivate a support base in Iowa.

The shift is not dramatic, but it raises questions about whether Palin would have staying power in Iowa as she moves closer to a decision on a White House run, pollsters say.

"One might ask the question: Is she wearing well? And the numbers are not moving in a favorable direction on that," Iowa Poll director J. Ann Selzer said. ...

... [Since November of 2009], Palin has produced two best-selling books, become a regular contributor to Fox News Channel and become the subject of a television program on TLC.

She has also visited Iowa four times, including three times to promote her books and once to headline a state Republican Party fundraiser. Each appearance has drawn Iowa and national news coverage.

The new poll shows fewer likely voters who are Republicans view Palin very favorably, 18 percent, than the 27 percent who did so in the Register's November 2009 poll.

"The change in intensity is statistically significant," said Adam Geller, a Republican pollster and campaign consultant to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's 2009 campaign. "If you're Sarah Palin, you want those lines on the chart going up as the presidential contest gets closer, not going down." ...

... Favorability is not the same as support for Palin's candidacy, should she decide to run. ...

... Palin has done very little to cultivate political good will in a state where face-to-face meetings with influential activists, officials and organizers are common. Palin held no private political meetings during any of her four visits. She met briefly with about 50 influential Republican officials and donors during a reception before the fundraiser she headlined in September, but did not discuss mounting an Iowa campaign.

Some Iowa Republicans have said privately they do not expect Palin to run, considering her low profile in the state.

A reason for the dimmed enthusiasm for Palin could be her national exposure combined with her lack of Iowa activity, Geller said.

"She hasn't been active in the state. And Iowans have that expectation and a feeling of responsibility to see these people up close," Geller said. "But it might also be a little Sarah Palin fatigue. They are familiar with her and yet they are not necessarily embracing her. Sixty-five percent is not a very high favorable rating." ...

... Meanwhile, the percentage of likely Republican voters who view Palin unfavorably has grown to 30 percent in the new poll, up from 23 percent in the 2009 survey. ...

There is more at the Register's article, including quotes from Iowa Republicans -- there is at least one die-hard Palin supporter among them. I'll certainly be checking the Register -- Don't we need to adopt a standard for setting off the names of newspapers? periodicals? TV shows? -- checking for news of the Iowa caucuses.

Comic Relief: Wonkette has found a secret Twitter account that's said to be Sarah Palin's, used by her so that she can "follow" herself. At Wonkette's story, there are also links to the story of Sarah's secret Facebook account -- discovered by Wonkette, earlier -- an account she used to praise herself.

Update: Yay! The Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart has weighed in with his "Iowa Republicans cool to Sarah Palin:"

First, Sarah Palin's presidential flirtations hit a granite wall in New Hampshire -- home of the first-in-the-nation primary. Now comes a poll that shows likely Republican voters in Iowa -- home of the first-in-the-nation caucus -- are cooling to the half-term governor's charms. ...

... The Iowa poll is statistical proof of what Dan Balz reported two weeks ago in a report on Iowa Republican activists. Folks really like Palin. They just don't think she's ready to be president. Here's what Iowa physician Christi Taylor told Balz.

As a woman, and from one strong woman to another, I want to like her and want to support her desperately. And yet, you just can't quite do it. ...

At the end of Capehart's post, there is a chart of Palin's favorable/unfavorable rating since September of 2009. It doesn't look good for our lady-in-waiting. I admire Jonathan Capehart, because he has held a consistent view of Sarah Palin's presidential prospects for some time -- he isn't affected by Palin mania -- and I think he's right: "Sarah Palin is everywhere -- and going nowhere."

Palin Running for Money, says Ann Coulter and Montana's Governor -- Updated!

Politico has a report about its interview of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer:

... "Sarah's not running. ...

... "Because everything she's done since the last presidential election has decreased her job approval all over the country. Did she write any books before she ran for vice president? Did Fakes News have her employed then?," he said, when pressed for his reasoning why the former Alaska governor won't pull the trigger. "Clearly she only stayed governor for two years, that doesn't pay much. What she's doing now pays a lot more." ...

And read what Ann Coulter had to say about a Palin candidacy:

The conservative commentator Ann Coulter made the claim on Sean Hannity's show on Fox News on Feb. 25 2011 that Sarah Palin is fueling speculation she may run for the 2012 Republican nomination for the U.S. Presidency because she wants higher fees at speaking engagements.

"I think she's saying that (she might run) because she also said Newt Gingrich told her you can get higher speaking fees if you pretend you are running for President," Coulter told Hannity.

There is another story about Coulter's appearance on Hannity at Mediaite, which includes video.

Now that Coulter has told Hannity what she knows, will he ask Palin to confirm or deny that she is pretending she might run in order to boost her speaking fee? Palin loves to appear on Hannity's show, so we shouldn't have to wait long for an answer, unless it takes them some time to decide how Hannity can couch the question so Palin can spin Coulter's comment.

The governor of Montana is a Democrat, and Ann Coulter is full of common sense. With their assessments, we do have a bi-partisan consensus: Sarah Palin isn't going to run. You know, it really wouldn't make sense for her to run: It seems as though everyone -- looking for a Republican candidate that might win -- everyone knows she's unqualified. And, she hated being governor of Alaska; most likely because she has no interest in government.


Update: Jennifer Rubin. writer of the Washinton Post's Right Turn column and someone with an ear to the ground of Republican politics, writes:

Nearly everything mainstream political reporters and conventional-wisdom-spouting pundits told us about the 2012 Republican presidential primary race is turning out to be wrong. Sarah Palin is the "frontrunner"! Wrong. The field will be huge! Wrong. The Republicans always choose the "next in line," so that's Mitt Romney! Uh, probably wrong.

What we do know is that Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) are not running. With each passing day it seems more and more likely that Palin will pass as well. Mike Huckabee keeps telling us he likes his current lifestyle (and income). So who is left? Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and, maybe, Newt Gingrich. ...

I'll bet that Sarah Palin likes her current lifestyle (and income), too.

Update: Here's how Sarah Palin may have been "told" by Newt Gingrich that it's a good idea to pretend to run (from NY Magazine):

Newt Gingrich is really thinking hard about running for president in 2012, he said today in Iowa, the perfect state for saying such things. "I've never been this serious," Gingrich claimed. "It's fair to say that by February the groundwork will have been laid to consider seriously whether or not to run." It's a good thing Newt is dragging out this decision process for so long — it will give the media an excuse to pay any attention to him despite all the insane things he says, which will help the sales of his book! It's the exact reason that Gingrich advised Indiana governor Mitch Daniels to be coy about running for president, according to a recent Weekly Standard article.

At dinner Daniels admits as much. “Newt [Gingrich] told me, look, quit saying you’re not going to do this. If you don’t run, you don’t run. But say you’re leaving the door open, and the national press will pay a lot more attention to your viewpoint.”

Call us when you're running, Newt.

Gingrich even told Daniels that it's a good idea to say, "you're leaving the door open." That's what Sarah Palin says, too!

Palin's Star Fading Fast

Steven Thomma of McClatchy Newspapers writes, in "Even GOP activists are turning against Sarah Palin,"

As Sarah Palin wonders whether to run for president, she might want to talk to people in places such as South Carolina.

She'd find her star fading, and her prospects daunting.

Republicans still like her, but now they openly question whether she could or should be nominated for president, let alone elected.

At a recent gathering in South Carolina, the site of a crucial early presidential primary next year, party activists said the former Alaska governor didn't have the experience, the knowledge of issues or the ability to get beyond folksy slang and bumper-sticker generalities that they think is needed to win and govern.

Many are shopping for someone else. They're looking at Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., for example, and seeing what they call a smarter, more experienced candidate who's equally as conservative.

"Sarah Palin with a brain," said Gail Moore, a Republican from Columbia. ...

Several people were interviewed for the article, and they freely criticize Palin for her inadequacies. Then the article concludes:

It's been a surprising turn since 2008, said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducts the McClatchy-Marist Poll. Despite a barrage of criticism of Palin by Democrats and the news media, she came out of the election looking as if she'd be the major force for the party's nomination.

"She doesn't appeal to the center, and she hasn't been trying to," Miringoff said.

"There's a general sense among Republicans that this is someone they like being part of the 2012 narrative," Miringoff said. "They don't mind her pushing the edge of the envelope on issues. But there's concern about electability, about polarization. They're not necessarily sure she should be the nominee."

Don Long of Lake Wylie, S.C. said of Palin, "Her major weakness is that she needs to bone up on how the government works. I don't know if she's done as much of that as she needs to." I believe that the reason why Sarah Palin hasn't boned up on government is that Sarah Palin has no interest in government, and that, in turn, is why she came to hate her job as Alaska's governor.

Sarah Palin heads to India?

From Alexandra Petri's "Sarah Palin heads to India?"

We may never know who Lou Sarah was or why she only had twelve friends. All trace of this rogue pro-Palin Facebook page has vanished, in spite of all the blissful hours Lou Sarah spent poking me and suggesting I rewatch Sarah Palin's Alaska "for the subtleties."

But now the real Sarah is going to India. She'll feel at home - "India is just Indiana with less sodium," she'll quip, or maybe not.

But what is she doing there?

Well, she's giving a dinner keynote address, or whatever the Sarah Palin approximation of a keynote address is.

She's listed as one of many "incredible speakers" and follows in the footsteps of James Cameron. This makes sense; both are creators of fantasy worlds where heavily armed Real Americans sort of try to show the blue-state tree-huggers who's really boss, and neither has much gift for dialogue. ...

... I still fail to understand what she's doing there. The other speakers at this event? India's Prime Minister and Nobel Prize-winner Mohammed ElBaradei. One of these things is not quite like the others. It's not that I'm one of those people who would gladly pay $100,000 for Sarah Palin not to address me. But I don't know who thought she was a logical pick. Although now that Lou Sarah is off Facebook, maybe it's the only way to connect.

Alexandra Petri occasionally writes about Sarah Palin at The Washington Post's ComPost column.

Sarah Palin is Going to India?

Politico's Andy Barr is reporting:

Sarah Palin is traveling to India next month to rub elbows with Indian politicians and Bollywood stars.

The former Alaska governor is scheduled to speak at the India Today Conclave in New Delhi on March 19. ...

... The conference’s choice of Palin is an odd one. She will be the only American politician attending the conference, which is stacked with Indian and Pakistani officials, business leaders, public figures and entertainers.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is kicking off the conference Friday morning with the keynote. Palin’s speech comes Saturday night and brings the conference to a close.

Ah! The closing speech: Dessert; s'mores; a happy ending. Although Palin may not be contributing anything substantive to the conference, a closing speech shouldn't be a throwaway. eHow's guide, "How to Write a Closing Speech," addresses several things every closing speech writer should know. I'll put on my Sarah Palin hat wig and give you her reaction to each of the guide's points:

1) Understand Speech Structure

Organization? Word salad isn't allowed?

Explain who I am and mention my credentials? But -- woe is me! -- I quit.

2) Summarize Key Ideas

Ideas? What ideas?

3) Give Them a Clue

If that door opens -- Oops! will someone -- anyone! -- please! -- peel me off that door?

4) Make Them Feel Something

DON'T RETREAT!

5) Get Them to Take Action

RELOAD!

Perhaps I've lent her more self awareness than she has.

Grow up, Sarah!

In "Palin can dish it out, but she can’t take it," Cynthia Tucker of Atlanta's Journal-Constitution tells Sarah Palin to "grow up:"

Earlier this week, Politico wrote about a trove of e-mails, contained in an unpublished manuscript written by Frank Bailey, a former aide to Sarah Palin, which show the former governor as the petty, vindictive, self-centered and hyper-sensitive personality any halfway attentive observer has long known her to be. With an enemies list which would put Richard Nixon to shame, Palin is obsessed with every perceived slight, every criticism, every mention of her that is less than glowing praise. She goes after not just liberals, Democrats and the “lamestream media,” as she calls us, but also Republican bigwigs who, she believes, are unfair to her ...

... Palin has absolutely no business in public life. She is temperamentally unsuited to modern-day politics, where officials and their family members — even children — are subjected to harsh criticism, unfair attacks, scurrilous rumors and even violent threats. ...

... Sarah, grow up.

Sarah Palin can dish it out, but she can't take it.

Palin Trumped by The Donald

The Bemidji Pioneer has a report about the Beltrami County Republicans presidential straw poll:

... With 46 delegates voting in the straw poll, both Hucabee [sic] and Pawlenty scored nine votes, good for 19.6 percent each.

Delegates at their annual convention were told that Hucakbee [sic] won the straw poll, followed by Pawlenty, but Cobb said a data input error occurred when posting the results into an onsite computer.

Delegates picked from a list of 23 potential presidential candidates, including newcomer billionaire Donald Trump, who got 4.3 percent of the vote. ...

... Among notables, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney each had three votes or 6.5 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin got none. ...

Sarah Palin may be scared of reporters, authors, bloggers, columnists and cartoonists, but Donald Trump is scared of germs. He considered running for office in 2000, but couldn't bring himself to shake hands with the voters. Time magazine's Margaret Carlson was, I believe, the first to write, in 1999, about Trump's phobia:

... I have come to New York to see if Trump, the umpteenth person to form a presidential exploratory committee this year, is as big a jerk as he sometimes seems to be. Not that being a jerk automatically disqualifies a person from becoming a candidate these days: anyone with airfare and a website can jump in. But he's the first real estate developer with a skyscraper-size ego to run, a man famous for prompting Marla Maples' tabloid headline BEST SEX I'VE EVER HAD, and for refusing to shake hands for fear of germs. As he shakes mine, I ask him if he's got over this phobia. "I don't mind shaking the hand of a beautiful woman," he croons. "It's worth the risk." ...

This post's photo came from a Politico story, "Minn. poll: Trump bests Palin."